News Story

Politician's Loose Talk Paints Flawed Picture On Budget

Low-ball state revenue claims get some scrutiny

Politicians don’t always give the full picture when talking about government finances.

State Sen. Curtis Hertel Jr., D-East Lansing, provided an example recently when he pointed to the state’s General Fund account to claim that inadequate revenue has meant inadequate investment in infrastructure upgrades.

The news site MIRS reported: “Hertel said Michigan government has ‘not solved any problems in the last 20 years’ because Michigan’s General Fund is essentially the same size as it was 20 years ago, roughly $10.9 billion. Meanwhile, the cost of food is up 50%. Inflation has risen the prices of basically everything else, too.”

Hertel’s claim deserves a closer look:

The size of the General Fund – one of several state accounts or “funds” into which tax revenue is deposited and spent – has been relatively stagnant the past 20 years. According to the Senate Fiscal Agency, the balance in the fund has been about the same for the past 20-plus years. The fund held $10.68 billion in the 1999-2000 fiscal year, and it is projected to begin the 2019-20 fiscal year with a balance of $10.85 billion.

But the General Fund is not the sum total of state revenue: Michigan state government will raise and spend some $33.06 billion this year – not $10.85 billion. And that does not count $22.8 billion in federal money that’s also in the budget.

Moreover, state revenues are often fungible, meaning they can be moved between funds or accounts at lawmakers’ discretion. This is why the amount of revenue moving through the General Fund each year has changed so little: Lawmakers keep shifting various revenue streams from one fund to another, including new funds that get created.

For example, a road funding bill enacted in 2015 shifted more than $1 billion in future state income tax receipts that had been earmarked for the General Fund to go instead to a different account, the Michigan Transportation Fund. At the end of 2018, legislators tweaked this shift by earmarking even more income tax revenue in the current fiscal year away from the General Fund and into road repairs.

These and similar shifts over the past decade are the reason why the General Fund has barely grown, rising from $8.29 billion in 2008-09 to $10.85 billion in 2018-19.

Michigan state revenue from all state sources has increased from $26.31 billion in 2008-09 to $33.06 billion in 2018-19, according to the Senate Fiscal Agency. That’s $1.82 billion above the cost of inflation during that 10-year period. The amounts do not include billions in federal revenue that flow through the state budget each year.

Hertel’s office didn’t respond to an email seeking comment.

Michigan Capitol Confidential is the news source produced by the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. Michigan Capitol Confidential reports with a free-market news perspective.

Commentary

Cut the Budget, Raise Taxes or Wait

The forgotten option of the Michigan road funding debate

In attempting to find more resources for road repairs, lawmakers seem to have painted themselves into a corner. They want a lot of money and they want it now, but they can’t raise taxes or cut the budget. A number of proposals have been made to increase taxes, and we’ve promoted some ways to save money. But lawmakers can also wait.

Economic growth has meant that taxpayers are already sending more money to Lansing. Michigan’s budget increased by $8.7 billion since 2010, a 15% increase above inflation. Some of that has come from economic growth, but the state government has also changed its tax policies over the period. It decreased business taxes, eliminated a number of tax credits and deductions, cancelled income tax cuts, increased fuel and vehicle registration taxes and made other changes. And after all that, revenue is up.

It is also expected to increase even more. State revenue forecasters estimate at least another $1.5 billion for the state over the next three years. Growth is not guaranteed, but Michigan’s budget has steadily increased in the economic recovery.

The transportation budget increased from $2.0 billion to $3.6 billion since 2010, with only $500 million of the increase coming from tax hikes. Lawmakers have also marked some revenue to go the transportation budget in the future, and that would increase state spending up to $4.0 billion. Current levels on roads are also the highest in history, even without the earmark.

To put it another way, the governor’s proposed tax increase, which takes place over two years, is the equivalent of 2.6 years of prioritizing road funding at current trends.

Lawmakers are already increasing the importance of roads in the budget. The budgets passed by the House and the Senate for the upcoming fiscal year increase road funding without increasing taxes. Funding for schools would go up as well. The House budget increases transportation spending by $372 million. The primary source for these gains comes from growth, though the House budget also has some cuts to corporate handouts, which I appreciate. The governor, in contrast, wants to increase taxes by $1.3 billion in order to spend $800 million more on roads.

Lawmakers can spend more on roads without raising taxes. They already have.

If roads are a priority, then there ought to be something in the budget that is less of a priority. Otherwise calls for more money for roads are just an excuse to raise taxes. But lawmakers can also wait and make roads a priority for future revenue growth. Growth is already responsible for the bulk of the gains in road funding, and there is more to come in the future.

Michigan Capitol Confidential is the news source produced by the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. Michigan Capitol Confidential reports with a free-market news perspective.