Home heating costs nationwide will be higher this winter than last, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association.

The association, a trade group of officials who administer energy-focused welfare programs, blamed the spike on the expense of maintaining grids, higher costs of natural gas, and colder weather forecasts.

Some energy analysts, though, say the crisis has another cause: government policies that are driving up costs.

“Prices for home heating this winter on average are estimated to increase by about 10.5% from last year’s winter heating season due to expected colder winter weather in the Northeast and Midwest states from $889 to $982,” the association said in a press release.

Families who heat with electricity will see their costs rise from $1,063 to $1,208, a 13.6% increase, the association said. Households heating with propane can expect a 7.3% increase, with costs going from $1,343 last winter to $1,442.

The association expects the winter heating cost for natural gas users in the Midwest to increase by $40, slightly less than the $43 increase projected nationally. Midwesterners who use electric heat will pay another $225 in the coming winter, compared to a national average increase of $145.

These forecasts omit the role of federal policies in making home heating more expensive, said the Institute for Energy Research, a Washington, D.C., nonprofit that analyzes energy policies.

“Midwest states, including Michigan, are expected to see colder-than-usual temperatures this winter, but rising energy prices are primarily driven by supply limitations, not increased demand,” Alex Stevens, manager of policy and communications at the institute, told Michigan Capitol Confidential in an email.

The U.S. government under the Biden administration has “taken more than 250 actions deliberately designed to make it harder to produce energy here in America,” wrote Thomas J. Pyle, president of the institute. Those actions include numerous revocations of Trump-era policies that decreased regulations and made it cheaper to produce domestic energy. The Biden administration also instituted $150 billion in tax increases on oil and gas energy producers.

Stevens said that Michigan’s government has contributed to the problem as well. Michigan’s energy market is constrained by regulations, plant shutdowns and net-zero mandates. “Coal plants like Trenton Channel and St. Clair were closed in 2022, and more closures are expected in 2023 and 2024, reducing energy capacity,” he wrote. He also warned that wind and solar energy sources, favored by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, underperform coal and natural gas.

Jason Hayes, an energy policy expert at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, told CapCon that Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s policies have worsened matters. Legislation the governor signed would make electricity more expensive, he wrote in 2021. And earlier this year, Hayes wrote that Whitmer’s net zero energy policies will cost households $1,500 to $2,750 and increase costs for years to come.

“The climate change crisis is one of the City’s top priorities,” the city of Grand Rapids says, and it is developing a plan to act on that belief.

The draft of the climate action and adaptation plan aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and encourage electrification. It has six chapters: Energy (more solar use), Healthy Homes (less electric use; income-based electric rates), Commercial buildings (less energy use), Transportation (more carpooling and cycling, denser developments), Natural Systems (more trees and rain gardens), and Food systems (more urban agriculture and composting, less food in trash).

Public comment is open through Oct. 31, 2024. The city expects to release a full draft plan in December.

The plan has as its benchmark the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by municipal operations in 2008, with the goal of an 85% reduction by 2030 and a 100% reduction by 2040.

The plan will try to reduce community greenhouse gas emissions by 62.8% per capita by 2030, with 2019 as the benchmark. It calls for a 100% per capita reduction by 2050, according to Interim Chief Sustainability Officer Annabelle Wilkinson.

“We plan to achieve these through the goals, strategies and actions outlined in the upcoming Climate Action and Adaptation Plan. The website you linked to includes the current draft chapters available for public review and the timeline we’re working on for finalization,” Wilkinson told Michigan Capitol Confidential in an email.

The plan aims to reduce building energy consumption through requiring building owners to report their energy use, creating building performance standards, and using tune-ups, audits, or retro-commissioning. Draft plans call for establishing a workgroup to create a plan to significantly reduce energy consumption and costs for small and minority-owned businesses.

“Our Commercial Building Chapter does include consideration of a benchmarking policy,” Wilkinson wrote. “That recommendation came from over a year of engagement with community stakeholders on a Commercial Buildings Climate Advisory Team - however the current draft available online does not take into account the feedback we have received from public engagement taken over the summer (Commercial Building Climate Plan Chapter Event hosted by West Michigan Sustainable Business Forum, U.S. Green Building Council, and the Grand Rapids Chamber of Commerce) and the survey responses we are currently collecting on the draft chapters.”

The plan would mandate commercial buildings over 10,000 square feet to report their energy usage.

Other plans call for streamlining the process for installing solar and electric vehicle charging infrastructure within existing buildings. They also call for promoting strategies such as “when it dies - electrify.” The city might enact a policy requiring high-performing / zero-emissions new construction and major renovation and encourage other businesses to adopt a similar policy.

Grand Rapids is basing its climate plan on those of other large cities, including Austin, Texas; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Portland, Oregon; and Providence, Rhode Island.

The business community has submitted feedback and will stay engaged as the plan develops, according to Joshua Lunger, the vice president of government affairs at the Grand Rapids Chamber of Commerce. Those who own property, commercial real estate, and small businesses would be most impacted by this proposal.

“We’re waiting to see how it’s presented to the city because it’s still in draft form,” Lunger told Michigan Capitol Confidential in a phone interview.

The City of Grand Rapids Office of Sustainability and the GR2030 District will oversee the program. If the city adopts the plan, the City Commission must suggest and approve policy changes.