News Story

40 Percent Of Whitmer’s 2020 Gas Tax Hike Won’t Support Roads

It backfills money governor would remove from transportation budget to pay for other state spending

A large portion of the 45-cent increase in the state gas tax proposed by Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer will not go to the state’s transportation budget, according to an analysis by the Mackinac Center for Public Policy.

If approved by the Republican-controlled House and Senate, Whitmer’s proposed 45-cent motor fuel tax increase would occur in three separate 15 cent tax hikes on Oct. 1, 2019, April 1, 2020, and Oct. 1, 2020.

The first two tax hikes would increase the tax by 30 cents and bring in an additional $1.26 billion during the 2019-20 fiscal year. But documents submitted by Whitmer as part of her executive budget recommendation on Tuesday indicate that the net increase to transportation funding will be just $764 million in the 2019-20 fiscal year.

In other words, $499.2 million — an estimated 40 percent of the $1.26 billion gas tax increase in 2020 — would not go to roads. Instead, it would replace current transportation budget dollars that would be redirected to pay for other state government spending.

Some $325 million of the difference comes from removing income tax revenue from the 2020 road repair budget, an amount that under current law will increase to $600 million in the 2020-21 and successive road budgets. This money was earmarked to roads as part of a road funding package enacted in late 2015 after another all-tax road repair measure that was placed on the ballot by a previous legislature was defeated by voters earlier that year. The income tax earmarked for road repairs represented a commitment by then-Speaker of the House Kevin Cotter and House Republicans to not approve another all-tax road fix proposal, and instead reprioritize some other non-transportation state resources to roads.

Other than ending the $325 million income tax earmark, the budget documents released by Whitmer on Tuesday are not clear on where the rest of the $499.2 million coming out of the Transportation budget is coming from. The difference between how much the tax increase will bring in and the overall increase in transportation spending appears in those executive budget documents.

Whitmer called Michigan's roads “downright dangerous,” according to WJRT-TV. Despite this characterization, $499.2 million of the gas tax increases she proposes will not end up in the state’s transportation fund.

The analysis was done by James Hohman, director of fiscal policy at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy.

Whitmer’s office didn’t respond to an email seeking comment.

“The governor’s budget is a political wish list funded by much higher taxes on the people of Michigan,” said Sen. Aric Nesbitt, R-Porter Township. “Road funding has increased to a record level, and a solid boost would have been to direct all taxes on fuel to fixing our roads.”

Michigan Capitol Confidential is the news source produced by the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. Michigan Capitol Confidential reports with a free-market news perspective.

Commentary

Gas Tax Hike of 45 Cents May Kill More than 22,500 Private Sector Jobs

Lawmakers should look at other options

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer wants to increase the state gas tax by 45 cents per gallon to finance road infrastructure repair and upgrades. The Mackinac Center ran this scenario through a Michigan-specific software package called the State Tax Analysis Modeling Program, or STAMP, to measure its impact on the economy.

STAMP estimates what would happen if the tax were increased by 15 cents in October and then by another 30 cents the following October. The tax increases, it says, would cost more than 22,500 private sector jobs and raise just under $2.5 billion annually by fiscal 2022. It would also increase government employment by 6,300 jobs.

STAMP is an example of a “computable general equilibrium” model. Like other economic models, it represents a simplification of the real world. It is designed to provide insight into changes in the state’s economic landscape resulting from changes in state taxes.

Fortunately, a straight-up tax hike is not the only option available to lawmakers. They can also reprioritize current spending to roads, or raise the gas tax by 45 cents and offset some or all that tax increase with spending cuts and personal income tax cuts. By raising the gas tax and cutting taxes elsewhere, lawmakers can stick to something akin to a user fee for roads — a sound tax policy — while offsetting that tax hike with a job-creating tax cut elsewhere.

Consider two other scenarios run through our model:

  • Raise the gas tax by 45 cents through the scheduled phase-in but cut spending and the state income tax by nearly $1.25 billion. Under this scenario, there are still some early private sector job losses, but those are gained back and turn slightly positive by 2022. The dynamic and positive impact of a personal income tax cut more than offsets the negative consequences of a gas tax hike.
  • Raise the gas tax by 45 cents but cut state spending and the income tax by nearly $2.5 billion. This scenario would likewise fix the roads but also add more than 24,000 net new private sector jobs to the economy by 2022.

The curious reader may wonder where those state spending cuts might be made. Consider that the Mackinac Center and two government institutions have floated hundreds of ideas, many of which could still be adopted or adapted. Each group’s ideas have been archived on the Mackinac Center’s web site.

The largest single recommended list of cuts — worth $3 billion in general fund dollars — was floated by the state budget office for the 2012 fiscal year. It was called the “Mystery Document” by a Lansing-based newsletter, as it was published without a named author. The Mackinac Center, nearly a decade before that, produced a 200-idea budget study worth $2 billion, and its key reform ideas are still intact. Lastly, Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s Commission on Government Efficiency created its own list of reforms worth $1.5 billion.

Just this year, Mackinac Center scholars have updated old ideas and introduced new ones in three different essays and official testimony, and they add up to more than $1.1 billion in potential state budget savings. The reform ideas presented by Mackinac Center adjunct scholar Christopher Douglas were specific to transportation, and they totaled $400 million.

There are clearly enough budget-cutting ideas and other reforms available to offset the massive new tax burden the proposed gas tax hike would produce. Lawmakers should pursue them. After more than 25 years of work with the Mackinac Center, I feel compelled to note that too many budget reforms and proposals to reduce spending are too easily dismissed as too big to be politically acceptable or too small to make a difference.

If lawmakers attempt budget cuts and other reforms to offset any gas tax hike, they will at least provide some evidence that Michigan’s taxpayers aren’t playing second fiscal fiddle to billionaire corporate welfare supplicants. And lawmakers will also show that taxpayers take priority over garden poetry readings at White Lotus Farms, “Ann Arbor’s premier source of local artisan bread, cheese, and organic farm produce,” which the state will subsidize this year.

The roads need more money, but taxpayers should demand evidence that the state has worked extra hard to find savings elsewhere to deserve their additional dollars.

Michigan Capitol Confidential is the news source produced by the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. Michigan Capitol Confidential reports with a free-market news perspective.