EV mandates, energy transition threaten grid, regulator warns

Energy reliability could worsen over the next decade, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation warned last month. Two of the culprits named by the 2023 Long-Term Reliability Assessment are the forced transition to electric vehicles and the mandatory phasing out of reliable energy sources without suitable alternatives.

The corporation is an international regulator that assesses risks to the North American energy grid and warns of threats to its reliability.

“In recent years, we’ve witnessed a decline in reliability, and the future projection does not offer a clear path to securing the reliable electricity supply that is essential for the health, safety and prosperity of our communities,” said John Moura, NERC’s director of reliability assessment and performance analysis, in a statement accompanying the assessment.

The regulator warns that the grid covering Michigan, served by the Midcontinent System Operator, will face shortfalls before 2030, even if all the expected wind and solar resources expected come online.

“Beginning in 2028, MISO is projected to have a 4.7 GW shortfall if expected generator retirements occur, despite the addition of new resources that total more than 12 GW,” NERC warns.

Electricity demand had been flat or declining prior to 2023 but has risen significantly since the 2022 assessment, NERC says.

“Resource adequacy concerns arise throughout the next 10 years, stemming from higher demand, generator retirements and the potential for replacement resources to fall short of capacity and energy needs,” NERC says.

The corporation notes that many coal and nuclear facilities will be retired through 2033, while more wind and solar infrastructure is expected to be built.

“The 2023 (assessment) finds that most areas are facing resource adequacy challenges, with many projected to have reserve shortages or emerging energy risks in future years,” the corporation said in its announcement of the 2023 assessment. “In addition, the new mix of resources heightens fuel supply concerns as the reliance on just-in-time delivery of natural gas fuel to generation increases.”

Read it for yourself: NERC warns of ‘resource adequacy concerns’; NERC 2023 Long Term Reliability Assessment