Thirteen years after the city of Detroit filed for bankruptcy, officials there are projecting an operating budget shortfall by 2027.

That’s according to an analysis of the city’s 2023 budget, published May 3 by the Citizens Research Council of Michigan.

The Citizens Research Council analysis states, “The city’s long-term budget forecast shows that projections of on-going revenues will not be sufficient to meet spending pressures in the near future. This forecast, based on a number of assumptions, presents a small, but growing, operating budget shortfall beginning in FY2027.”

The city of Detroit reported having 10,525 full-time employees in 2012, which was two years before it filed for bankruptcy. The city emerged from bankruptcy in 2015 with 6,187 FTEs, a 41% reduction in the full-time workforce.

Since then Detroit has been steadily growing its payroll, with 8,935 FTEs on the books in 2021, according to the city’s 2021 audited budget.

The payroll expansion has occurred even as Detroit's population continues to fall. There were 713,777 Detroit residents in 2010, a figure that dropped to 639,111 in 2020, according to the U.S. Census.

“While this spending has been important and necessary for the city’s growth it may prove to be unsustainable in the long run because the city will not have the revenue baseline to support the additional infrastructure, services, and personnel,” the Citizens Research Council report states.

As part of the bankruptcy agreement, the city of Detroit did not have to make contributions to its two pension funds, but it will have to resume making those payments in 2024, according to the Citizens Research Council. Those pension payments were made by the state of Michigan and private organizations. That nine-year pause ends in 2024.

“The City approved its balanced four-year financial plan for FY23 through FY26 last month,” said Deputy CFO and Budget Director Steve Watson. “As part of that process, the City also completes a ten-year forecast to plan for the future, given baseline trends and projected legacy pension liabilities. With our conservative forecast assumptions, the City’s expenditures begin to outpace revenues in FY27. To mitigate that potential outcome, the City will continue to exercise spending restraint, achieve new efficiencies, and grow its economy and revenue base. The reason we do these forecasts is so we can adjust as necessary to ensure the city produces a balanced budget every year, as we have done since exiting active state financial oversight. We expect the FY27 budget to be no different. Also, through the most recent budget, the City is also increasing its Rainy Day Fund and Retiree Protection Fund reserves to provide further fiscal stability.”

A Kentwood Public Schools student who is in a program for prospective teachers is featured in a May 25 story from the nonprofit news site Chalkbeat Detroit. Though the story focuses on claims of a teacher shortage in Michigan, the Kentwood district has increased its number of teaching positions by more than a third over eight years, while barely enrolling more students.

Chalkbeat Detroit is not the only news agency positing an educator shortage in Michigan, but it has reported energetically and consistently on the issue.

“The state faces a teacher shortage at a most inopportune time: when students need more educational resources to catch up academically after two years of pandemic-related disruptions,” Chalkbeat Detroit stated in a report from early May.

Kentwood Public Schools has seen its teaching staff increase from 499.72 full-time-equivalents during 2013-14 school year to 672.01 FTEs in 2021-22. That’s according to the state of Michigan, whose definition of teachers is not precise and includes positions such as nurses, counselors and therapists. The numbers represent a 34% increase in teaching FTEs to match a 5% growth in enrollment over that eight-year period.

Kentwood is unusual in seeing student enrollment grow at all. Statewide, Michigan public schools continue to lose students while putting more teachers on the payroll.

Chalkbeat Detroit did acknowledge in the May 25 story that there are more teachers and fewer students today than in the past.

“Although Michigan’s teaching force is larger than it was a decade ago, and the student population is smaller, administrators struggle to get fully certified teachers in classrooms where they’re most needed, especially in disciplines such as special education and world languages,” it said.

Both claims are accurate.

Michigan Capitol Confidential put in Freedom of Information Act requests from 2015 to 2019 to dozens of school districts, asking for data on applications for teaching positions. The latest claims of a widespread teacher shortage started to appear in 2015. But there have been consistent claims of shortages in this state for more than 100 years.

The overwhelming trend on job applications reviewed over that four-year period is that teaching is still a popular profession but certain positions are hard to fill.

For example, the Troy School District had 2,045 applications for a single K-5 teaching position, where the average teacher salary was $79,043 in 2021. But many districts reported having few or no applications for some open positions, usually in special education and foreign languages. Some districts also report having a hard time filling and positions in technical fields.

“To be sure, many schools across Michigan are finding it difficult to retain staff in certain positions. But this is not a new problem,” the nonprofit Citizens Research Council of Michigan stated in March.