After the appointment of a Republican to fill a vacancy in the state Senate, West Virginia looks increasingly likely to become the 26th right-to-work state. That would give West Virginia the same status as Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the three states that have enacted right-to-work laws in the last four years.

Senate Bill 1, a right-to-work bill to prevent unions from having workers fired for refusing to pay union fees, is under consideration in the West Virginia House of Delegates after it was approved on Jan. 21 by the West Virginia Senate.

If passed by the House, the bill is expected to be vetoed by Democrat Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin. Senate Majority Leader Bill Cole, a Republican, would need 18 votes to override a veto, but SB 1 passed in the Senate with only 17 votes.

The West Virginia Supreme Court ruled on Jan. 22 that Republicans must provide Tomblin with a list of three potential replacements for former Sen. Dan Hall, a Republican who resigned before the West Virginia Legislature’s session began Jan. 13. Sue Cline was sworn in as Hall’s replacement on Jan. 25 and is expected to join her fellow Republicans in voting to override a gubernatorial veto.

West Virginia Democratic Party leaders sued for the right to pick Hall’s replacement, since Hall was elected as a Democrat in 2012 before switching parties in 2014. State law, the party argued, suggested a Democrat should be chosen because a Democrat was most recently elected to the Senate seat.

With one justice abstaining, the state Supreme Court ruled 3-1 that the law is unambiguous in calling for Republicans to select the resigning Republican senator’s replacement.

“We reject petitioners’ reasoning because their reading of the statute is profoundly strained and constitutes a misreading of statutory language that is clear in its meaning,” Justice Margaret Workman wrote in the majority opinion.

The court’s ruling prevented a 17-17 deadlock in the state Senate, which would have likely killed any possibility of implementing right-to-work during this year’s 60-day legislative session.

With the question of the Senate appointment settled and with Sen. Cline seated, House approval seems to be the last remaining hurdle to right-to-work in West Virginia. Activists in favor of making their state a right-to-work state are proceeding accordingly.

“We will be focusing our grass roots on the House of Delegates, continuing to call lawmakers, send letters and use social media to encourage them to support worker freedom,” said Jason Huffman, state director of Americans for Prosperity for West Virginia. More than 60 percent of West Virginians support right-to-work, he said.

Michigan’s March 8 Republican presidential primary is fast approaching. In fact, absentee voter ballots for the primary have been available since Jan. 23. A full slate of 13 active GOP presidential candidates will be on the ballot. The number of GOP delegates at stake is 58, which will be distributed based on the number of votes each candidate receives.

For the first time in years, Michigan Democrats will hold a presidential primary on the same day, rather than the closed caucuses they have traditionally used. Democratic primaries are often a source of political drama, but this year’s Republican primary is expected to attract most of the attention.

Michigan presidential primary winners have a mixed record in going on to win their party’s nomination. In the 2000 state GOP primary, Sen. John McCain of Arizona gave then-Texas Gov. George Bush his biggest loss of the primary season, but Bush went on to win the nomination.

In 2008, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney defeated McCain, but McCain won the nomination nonetheless. In 2012, Romney won both the Michigan primary and the party nomination. Arguably, Romney’s win here that year played a key role in derailing former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania's attempt to take the nomination.

On Jan. 19, Michigan Capitol Confidential asked four political consultants — two Republicans and two Democrats — a question about the upcoming primaries: 

At this juncture, would you say Michigan’s March 8 Republican primary is likely to have a significant impact on determining which candidate will eventually win the nomination?

“No, it’s more likely to fit into an overall narrative — not change it,” said Mark Grebner, president of East Lansing-based Practical Political Consulting. “Actually, I think it is going to be very interesting. I’m predicting a very big turnout, two million or more, and there could be a big crossover vote. Michigan might be a big Donald Trump state; on the other hand, it might not be such a good state for Trump at all. This could be one of the more interesting elections that we’ve had in quite some time.”

According to Steve Mitchell, of East Lansing-based Mitchell Research and Communications, the impact of the Michigan primary will depend on whether the GOP presidential race is wide open or is dominated by one candidate when March 8 rolls around.

“Right now, it’s too early to say. Suppose Trump won the Iowa caucuses, then won in New Hampshire and South Carolina and basically was just running the table. If something like that happens the Michigan primary probably wouldn’t have much impact,” Mitchell said. “But if the early victories were split up, let’s say Ted Cruz wins in Iowa, John Kasich in New Hampshire and Trump in South Carolina, the potential could be there for the Michigan primary — coming after Super Tuesday and before all those that follow — to have quite an impact.”

Ed Sarpolus, director of Lansing-based Target-Insyght, Strategic Consulting and Research, agreed with Mitchell: The ultimate impact of this year’s Michigan presidential primary will depend on the status of the overall GOP race as of March 8.

“I think a lot depends on what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire,” Sarpolus said. “At that point, we’ll have a better idea. Right now, I’d say the chances are better that the Michigan primary either provides some candidate with a boost that helps keep them in the race or there will be a poor showing that knocks some candidate out of the race. Michigan could play a bigger role in naming the eventual Republican nominee if it was a winner-take-all primary state, but it isn’t.”

John Truscott, of the Truscott Rossman Group, said he thinks the Michigan primary might have a real impact on the GOP nomination.

“I think Michigan will be significant,” Truscott said. “I assume that the Iowa and New Hampshire results will show the polling up to this point has been fairly inaccurate in predicting the outcome. So by the time we get to the Michigan primary, it could be a fairly competitive race between three or four candidates. The Michigan result could provide the momentum to propel a candidate toward the top. Also, don’t assume Hillary Clinton would be a lock at the time of the Michigan Democratic primary. She might need Michigan to seal the deal.”