Michigan’s Economic Recovery More Than Just the Auto Industry
As Michigan continues its economic recovery that has led to more jobs, higher real estate values and more government tax revenue, one might wonder what’s driving the state’s recent economic growth. Some point to the booming auto industry, praising the bailouts and speedy bankruptcies. Yet, while some pieces of the state economy are improving more than others, it’s all of them together that makes the difference.
Michigan’s recent economic growth is substantial. From the end of the recession in 2009 to March 2015, Michigan added 407,800 jobs, a 10.6 percent gain — seventh highest among the states. Michigan continues to add jobs and will soon have fully replaced all of the jobs lost during the recession.
Auto industry jobs rebounded even more. Jobs in auto and auto-parts manufacturing are up 67 percent from their recessionary trough. Yet, compared to their peak in 2000, the state has fewer than half of the auto and auto-parts manufacturing jobs than it did 15 years ago.
Michigan’s growth in auto-manufacturing employment is a reflection of national trends. From 2000 to 2009, auto and auto-parts manufacturing jobs fell nationally, with Michigan losing a greater proportion of jobs than the nation as a whole. Since then, these jobs have rebounded nationally, and Michigan, having lost more jobs, had more to gain. Subsequently, the state’s auto jobs growth has outpaced the national trend since the recession ended.
Michigan’s economy is a much different state than it was in 2000. Back then, one out of 14 jobs was in auto and auto-parts manufacturing. Even with the recovery of the auto industry, it’s currently one out of 24 jobs. Motor vehicle and parts manufacturing accounted for 12.8 percent of state GDP in 2000, but just 7.6 percent in 2012, the most recent breakdown available. And while not strictly comparable due to changing industrial classifications, motor vehicles and equipment manufacturing used to account for more than 20 percent of state GDP in the 1960s.
Michigan produces other things than cars and trucks. And this is where Michigan has seen some unexpected growth. Non-auto manufacturing jobs in Michigan have fully rebounded from the recession, bucking national trends. Nationally, these jobs have stayed at their ratcheted-down levels since the recession.
According to the most recent state gross domestic product data, which unfortunately only reports detailed industry information for 2012, the largest manufacturing growth in Michigan during the recovery has come in chemical products, textile products and the ambiguous “miscellaneous manufacturing.” The value of products in these three industrial categories increased by more than 60 percent from just 2009 to 2012.
Michigan’s auto jobs recovery is great news for the state. But it is much more than just auto-related industries that have come back. In many ways, the state’s economy is more economically diverse than it has been in decades.
Residents should be grateful for this rebound. But these statistics also show how hard it is for anyone to predict the future and centrally plan a state economy. Yes, the heavily subsidized auto industry has rebounded, but so have many other industries that received no taxpayer support.
Policymakers should keep this in mind when designing policies that affect businesses. Business taxes and regulations should be fair and broad, applying equally to all, rather than to just a select few. A state economy is too diverse and complicated to nudge forward by subsidizing one or a few preferred industries.
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James M. Hohman is the assistant director for fiscal policy and Jarrett Skorup is the digital engagement manager and a policy analyst at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, a research and educational institute headquartered in Midland, Mich. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is hereby granted, provided that the author and the Mackinac Center are properly cited.
Michigan Capitol Confidential is the news source produced by the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. Michigan Capitol Confidential reports with a free-market news perspective.
House Road Plan Secures Road Funding
Road funding does not rely on an increasing budget
The largest portion of the Michigan House Republican road funding plan earmarks a portion of state income tax revenue. This has been criticized as unfeasible because it allegedly relies on future revenue growth. The plan, however, is not contingent on revenue increases. Growth is expected, but the plan does not rely on it.
House Bill 4605 would earmark $192 million of state income tax revenue next year to roads and ramp up to $717 million in 2019. The bill places these dollar amounts in statute, meaning that money will go to the roads regardless of whether income tax revenues increase or decrease. (Though it is important to note that state revenue has been and is projected to continue increasing.)
This is not a large earmark. The proposed $192 million amounts to just 3 percent of the currently unearmarked portion of income tax revenue. Even after being fully phased in, the earmark will still leave about 88 percent of unearmarked revenue available for other spending — and probably more, given likely revenue growth. The largest earmark of income tax revenue is a 23.8 percent allocation for the School Aid Fund.
Some may argue that statutory protections are insufficient to ensure that money keeps flowing from the income tax to the roads. But that can also be said about all the other earmarks scattered through the state tax code.
Moreover, policymakers would have a powerful incentive to keep this earmark: the 80-20 loss from Proposal 1. Voters indicated that legislators should first find money within the state budget to pay for the roads. No other statutory earmark can claim this strong of voter support.
Michigan Capitol Confidential is the news source produced by the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. Michigan Capitol Confidential reports with a free-market news perspective.
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