News Story

Global Warming 'Skeptic' Never Really Was

Media's portrayal of scientist's supposed change of heart ignores his previous statements

The mainstream media is celebrating a physicist who allegedly did a U-turn on his global warming views and now says humans are the cause.

Except Richard Muller had already said in 2008 that man was a cause of global warming.

Nonetheless, the San Francisco Chronicle, for example, reported July 31: “The hot issue of global warming got hotter Monday when a UC Berkeley physicist, once a loud skeptic of human-caused climate change, agreed not only that the Earth is heating up, but also that people are the cause of it all.”

Never mind that in an interview almost four years ago with the environmental magazine Grist, Muller said man was a cause of global warming.

Grist: What should a President McCain or Obama know about global warming?

Muller: The bottom line is that there is a consensus — the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] — and the president needs to know what the IPCC says. Second, they say that most of the warming of the last 50 years is probably due to humans. You need to know that this is from carbon dioxide, and you need to understand which technologies can reduce this and which can’t. Roughly 1 degree Fahrenheit of global warming has taken place; we’re responsible for one quarter of it. If we cut back so we don’t cause any more, global warming will be delayed by three years and keep on going up. And now the developing world is producing most of the carbon dioxide.

Even Muller appears to have forgotten what he said in 2008.

In his July 28 New York Times op-ed, Muller says he came to this conclusion in 2011. “Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.”

Muller didn’t respond to a question in an email about the discrepancy concerning when he came to believe in human-induced global warming, but responded to another question about his credentials.

Muller co-founded Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST), which released a study this month. Muller is not a climatologist. Many who support global warming have attacked the credentials of critics who were not climatologists. For example, in 2009, Bill Chameides, the dean of Duke’s Nicholas School of the Environment, wrote an op-ed for The Huffington Post saying those who doubted global warming were “non-experts” because they were not climatologists.

Chameides wrote: “Have you noticed that a new kind of scientific expert has been born? It is the non-climate scientist ‘climate scientist,’ better known in the trade as the NCSCS. ... What is a[n] NCSCS? It is someone who is not a climate scientist but is nevertheless happy to speak authoritatively about the alleged scientific errors being made by the real climate scientists. A dead ringer for a[n] NCSCS is one who begins with words to the effect of: ‘I am not a climatologist, but. ...’ ”

Chameides didn’t respond to an email asking how Muller’s testimony should be viewed since Muller is not a climatologist.

Muller defended his credentials when asked about not being a climatologist: “I don't know what the definition is. It is unfortunate that this field seems to emphasize credentials rather than science.” Muller also forwarded citations of his published works on climate that “have appeared in some of the most prestigious peer-reviewed journals.”

John Christy, a climatologist and a professor at The University of Alabama-Huntsville, said Muller has been on record in the past “promoting human-induced global warming.”

“I sat next to Muller at a (U.S.) House hearing last year,” Christy said in an email. “Nothing he said gave me the feeling he was a ‘skeptic.’ I also find his result that greenhouse emissions, to him, are the only thing that can cause slow warming in global temperature when such changes have occurred down through the centuries, i.e. before the BEST record begins. Climate variations have been around long before the mere 250 years of the BEST dataset.”

Michigan Capitol Confidential is the news source produced by the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. Michigan Capitol Confidential reports with a free-market news perspective.

Commentary

Milton Friedman and School Choice

(Editor’s note: Tuesday marked the 100th anniversary of the birth of famed economist Milton Friedman. The Mackinac Center celebrated with blog posts commemorating his impact on free-market ideology and educational choice.)

Milton Friedman is considered by some to be the father of today’s education reform movement. While this is a bit of a stretch, Friedman’s ideas have been extremely influential within the school choice movement and are frequently used to make both the economic and moral case for expanding parents’ freedom to choose the school they think is best for their children.

Friedman’s 1955 classic “The Role of Government in Education” was important for a number of reasons. First, it bluntly spelled out the problem with the public school system in the United States: monopolies that lack consumer-driven incentives. In short, the benefits of markets that Friedman had studied throughout his professional career were largely absent from the public education sector.

Second, public schooling was not seriously studied by many economists before 1955. Friedman’s piece can be seen as an invitation for economists to study education, encouraging them to apply economic principles to this field. Today, there are entire university departments dedicated to the economic study of education, including ones at Harvard, Stanford and the University of Arkansas.

Friedman advocated using vouchers to bring market-like principles to the public school system and reform its monopoly and lack of incentives for performance. He is often credited with creating the idea of vouchers, but in reality, vouchers had been in use in places like the Netherlands and, to a lesser extent, in Vermont and Maine, too.

Incidentally, the best test case of the implementation of Friedman’s ideas doesn’t come from the United States; it comes from Chile (which Friedman once famously visited and whose leader he advised). Chilean parents may choose from a large number of schools, including voucher-funded independent schools. The results of this experiment are impressive: According to a new Harvard study, Chile made the second-largest gains in student achievement among 40 developed countries between 1992 and 2011.

The United States has tried only modest voucher programs in places like Milwaukee, Cleveland and Washington, D.C., for example. The empirical evidence on the effectiveness of these limited programs has been somewhat underwhelming when it comes to boosting student achievement, but all of them deliver slightly better or similar results at a fraction of the cost of government-run schools.

While a full-fledged voucher program has yet to be tried in the United States, some of Dr. Friedman’s principles, to a certain degree, are evident in the charter public school and online learning movements. Fundamentally, these schooling alternatives are meant to provide more learning opportunities to students and enable some level of competition to prompt education providers to better meet the demands of students and parents.

Overall, the school choice movement that Dr. Friedman helped energize is arguably stronger than it’s ever been. The Wall Street Journal called 2011 “The Year of School Choice.” Voucher and tuition tax credit programs (superior to vouchers in many ways) are being expanded and popping up anew in many states. And an increasing number of people are recognizing the inherent problems associated with providing schooling through government-run monopolies. Further, economists and policymakers from all sides of the political spectrum are endorsing market-based reforms to address these shortcomings.

While Dr. Friedman may not have been the originator of the concept of educational freedom, his legacy has turned out to be long and powerful for the school choice movement.

Michigan Capitol Confidential is the news source produced by the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. Michigan Capitol Confidential reports with a free-market news perspective.